In a recent article for Quirk’s Magazine, Roger Green, President and CEO at RG+A, reports on findings from a survey of 1,100 physicians to test the precision of allocation versus patient simulation.
This presentation describes a simulation-based forecasting approach designed to overcome the challenges in forecasting treatment decisions for current and emerging options within multiple myeloma and other, highly complex disease areas.
In this presentation, delivered during a recent pharmaceutical market research conference workshop, RG+A’s methodology experts discuss the viability of small sample analytics. Through multiple case studies that cover forecasting in the orphan space, feature optimization for a medical device, and fast estimation of the potential of an in-licensing opportunity, you’ll learn the three key takeaways of small sample approaches and understand how to put them to work for managing risk and creating certainty in your business.
Our most recent white paper describes a new approach for forecasting the impact of future events based on RG+A’s pioneering Dynamic Practice Simulation® methodology. The method, called Dynamic Practice Simulation® Line of Therapy , simulates the treatment decision process by presenting physicians with a diverse set of realistic multiple myeloma patient profiles, having them treat the patients, and receiving feedback after each treatment on its effectiveness. Treatment decisions are assessed over three lines of therapy and include decisions for both induction and maintenance therapy. Physicians make their treatment decisions under two scenarios – the market as it currently exists and a future market after the launch of an innovative new treatment.
The ability of market researchers to provide precise forecasts is critical to decision makers. Precise forecasts are very valuable. A 21% share estimate with a confidence interval from 20% to 22% tells you all you need to know if your threshold for launching is 20%. Imprecise forecasts are of less value and sometimes, no value. A 20% share estimate with a confidence interval from 12% to 30% isn’t going to be of much value for making the same launch decision.
Attribute importance is a key information need for marketers. An understanding of attribute importance can help explain physician prescribing, it can help identify competitive advantages and disadvantages and it can provide guidance on what needs to be communicated in advertising and promotion. Attribute importance can also be a basis for segmenting and targeting physicians.