Complex Diseases: Challenges in Forecasting Physician Treatment Decisions under Multiple Market Scenarios

PMRC 2017
Track D

9:50-10:25 AM
February 2, 2017 

Roger Green
President and CEO
Timothy Deckman, Ph.D.
Vice President and Chief Marketing Scientist


The BioPharmaceutical business model of the future relies heavily on chronic or long-term treatment of diseases ranging from oncology to diabetes. These have several elements in common:

  • Multiple lines of therapy, most of which include more than one therapeutic agent and possibly supportive agents
  • Rapidly proliferating and complex treatment targets for which prescribers might know the jargon but not comprehend the underlying disease models and transmitter systems
  • Wide variance in the potential outcomes of the clinical trial process

Murphy’s Law says, “anything that can go wrong will go wrong,” but for marketing researchers, Murphy’s corollary may matter more “never assume anything you do not have to assume.” In this session, we will focus on some of the common assumptions marketers and researchers make that can lead to models, strategies and product positions that are simply wrong, and how to avoid the assumptions that lead to these errors. The presenters will build on RG+A’s extensive history in market simulation and modeling, including errors we have seen, to provide some simple benchmarks for building better forecasts and support tools.

You will learn how to spot and solve some frequently hidden issues

  • How the “Curse of Knowledge” can lead conscientious, detail-oriented researchers to sabotage their own studies
  • When it is unsafe to believe that physicians know was much as they claim about a disease
  • Why what we commonly consider good analytical practice can overmanage data sets and create critical and unnecessary errors in interpretation

Register Now