3rd-LINE MATTERS: Forecasting Brand Share for Complex Therapies

Join us as we present at PRMG Institute in New Brunswick, NJ!

PMRG Institute
Hyatt Regency New Brunswick
Tuesday, October 3, 4:15 PM–5:00 PM
Location: Regency C

Roger Green
RG+A

Dave Hamm
Astellas 

3rd-LINE MATTERS: Forecasting Brand Share for Complex Therapies by TJ Scott & Dave Hamm, Astellas & Roger Green, RG+A

Increasingly, biopharmaceutical manufacturers earn revenue by improving the treatment of complex diseases. Medicines that do so gain a significant share of revenues from 2nd and later line therapies, frequently in combination therapies. Forecasting later line use of these agents presents unique challenges. Traditional allocation methods cannot absorb the complexity in treatment regimens and patient histories. Chart pull studies trade off large costs against adequate sample sizes and frequently provide correlated variables that limit analytics. We will discuss “Line of Therapy” treatment simulation methodology, an innovation that allows researchers to forecast the next five years of market development in these disease classes.

In the core exercise, physicians treat a patient from initial diagnosis through multiple lines of therapy. The design incorporates:

  • Different patient segments or characteristics
  • Variability in clinical response
  • All key market events (new agents, indications, LoE) over as long as a five-year period

Analytics not only produce share forecasts as the market evolves, but also:

  • Source of share analysis across time periods
  • Common multi-line treatment patterns and the segments that prescribe/receive them
  • Market sensitivities with the greatest impact on the forecast

We will discuss the method and present a case study. The presenters will include the developer of this Line of Therapy method and a client who purchased this as a forecasting tool for a product coming to market.